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Notes on finding and winning grants
Written from the same research that drives the scoring. Every number links to its source.
September 7, 2026 · 8 min
How to choose an NIH institute for an SBIR application
Institute assignment is a first order strategic variable. FY2024 SBIR Phase I success rates ranged from 4.1 percent at NIAMS to 28.1 percent at NIDA for applications that could plausibly have gone to either.
September 7, 2026 · 10 min
Expected value math for grant applications
A weighted rubric for fit, a base rate anchored conversion to win probability, an expected value formula that subtracts the cost to apply and the cost to comply, and the thresholds that turn a number into a go or no go.
September 7, 2026 · 9 min
SBIR eligibility when your research is abroad
You can cite a foreign trial as preliminary data, but proposed SBIR work must happen in the United States. Here is what the rules say, what must be disclosed, and how to plan around them.
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